Still out

I've stuck to my guns! Euro bailout has once again failed.  I've stuck to my guns. Europe is a basket case and this is the model for Obama and the Democrats.   European markets are getting hammered. Look for us to follow.  I think we are going to have 2 more dip/rally cycles before we find a bottom to go up from.  The depression in housing and employment are just killing the domestic econmy. The GDP and employment numbers are a joke and not indictive of the serious recession or depression that the country is mired in. I predict my grand children will be taught about this era much as my generation was taught about the 30's! I hope Cain survives the smear tactics. I can't tell you how much I admire both him and Justice Thomas!  Men like these are the hope for our economy and country.

Missed the little rally in the bear market

Well I missed the bear rally.  No worries because day trading and 401K are largely in compatible.  The Euro appears to be doomed. Things are looking up though. I see a hard bottom around the end of March next year when a Cain Gingrich ticket seems like a winner.  An incoming administration that is deep in policy, Gingrich, and rich on leadership, Cain is what this country, economy and world need. That would inspire the economy the way the eloquent reader of the teleprompter(Obama) and the blowhard(Biden) fail to give. Again I'm out until a major corner.  The reality of the situation in Europe with the promise of a new dawn here should finally create the buying opportunity

What does hope have to do with investing?

Nothing.  Its called gambling.  Hope in Europe is misplaced. So is hope in Obama.  Right now keeping money in the market is like playing let it ride at the Casino. The house is going to win.  The house is the hedge funds, institutional investors, corporate insiders and the government.

The encouraging thing is the market seems to be closing on a technical bottom with the market over the S&P above the 50 day and not far below the 200 day MA. 


I still see nothing fundamentally bullish to move this market forward. It is still less risky to invest money in foreign capital and labor than domestic.  Only a change in administration plus a change in tax and regulatory policy will start to make the domestic labor and consumption market look competitive again against the riskier emerging markets.  Still looking at the end of Q1 before the market shows some leadership to the upside.

What Dollar cost averaging does

In a normal market Dollar cost averaging helps you catch the normal ebbs and flows of the market.  Timing a market on a general trend is a risky business. However we are not in a normal market.  We are in a very volatile bear market. Likely with another 20% downward trend. So likely if you are a young gen Xer or a millenial new to 401k investing your basis for average is probably well above current market levels. Its time to sell.  There will be a nice bottom that you will be able to catch before the recovery.  The market needs a sign that liberalism is dead. The Great Depression of the 20th century instiutionalized liberalism.  The Great Depression of the 21st century will help reform and change it.  Herman Cain or Mitt Romney after receiving the nomination will inject a huge level of confidence among all businesses interested in making a profit and hiring. This is what is needed to save this economy. Not a pesky jobs program. Once that is in place investors will start to return to the market and so should you.

Q4 rough start

Good morning.  Looks like it has been an ugly start to Q4.  More and more mainstream analysts are saying we are going back into recession.  I believe we  have probably been in recession all year and likely won't start climbing out until confidence rebounds in 2012 as the Presidential race unfolds.  Look for the markets to go down another 15% or more. Unemployment is probably going to tick up nation wide as it has here in Georgia.  Stay out of stocks. Horde cash if you can. 

Still Bearish

Q3 ended on an ugly note for a terrible quarter. I looked at the Dow up 80 in the early morning and I seriously thought about tweeting the end of day will be down 200.  To much hope is being placed on Europe.  Right now there is no growth engine for the US economy.  The only hope is moving to the Fair Tax.  The best thing for the economy was Herman Cain becoming a force in the Presidential race. Unlike Huckabee who embraced the Fair Tax in 2008 the GOP has a real chance in 2012.  The 9-9-9 plan would make manufacturing in the US plausible again. Remove the specter of Obama care and some of the burdensome regulations and you would see this countries productivity be competitive with the world. 

I have been faithfully predicting the market will start to go up by the end of Q1.  It looks like the GOP ticket will in March with all the big primaries being front loaded.  A business friendly President and a possible first governing Republican majority in many generations will be very bullish for the market. I  will adjust my bottom. I think it will be the Mid to upper 9000's on the Dow and the mid 950's on the S&P 500.

Its October. Still time to sell. This is historically a bad month for stocks

Still Another Leg Down To Go

I'm still holding in cash.  Market futures are down again.  I see 52 week low being touched or broken through on the S&P 500.  Looking for the S&P and the Dow to go down another 15-20% before recovering next year.  Politics: I liked what I heard from Herman Cain and Gary Johnson.  Whoever the nominee is I hope they listen to those guys.  That will be very good for our country and the Markets.  Hold on and stay in cash!

Downward Trend Resumes

The market had been in a very volatile but slow upward trend.  The 1-2-3 punch of an ineffective Administration in Washington D.C., European Debt on the brink and the Fed pointing out the obvious that it is going to be a long slog.  I'm still all in short term cash in my 401k.  When we have a pro-business GOP nominee who will counteract the taxes, regulations, pro-union, anti-business mentality of the Obama adminisration, I look for companies and investors to start reinvesting their cash back into the business and market. Look for this Late Q1 to Q2 of 2012

Not Much Has Changed

Time to stay on the sidelines.  There might still be time to get out of US equities though it is a slightly larger gamble now.  Obama fails to lead or create an enviornment friendly for job growth.  Still looking at end of Q1 as the time to figure out how to get back in.  I'm still 100% in cash in my 401k.

Lame Duck.

As last week's rally fades and the plunge continues any thoughts I entertained of getting back in are gone.  I stick by my guns. Q1 or Q2 next year will be the time to buy.  The market will start pricing in who  the next President is going to be.   President Obama is a lame duck.  He has had the most incompetent advisors surround him.  Even some of the more reasonable ones like former Economic Advisor Christina Romer was forced to drink the socialist kool-aid.  Obama is a committed socialist. Not sure how anyone could not see that. I understand his socialist activism in college was ignored but a professional community organizer? Come on.  Then he was a mostly inconsequential state and federal legislator.  So I stand by the market will be sighing with relief when the end is in sight.   Until then there is still time to get out of the market.  The market still has another 10% or so to go before finding a bottom. It gets a little more risky here because you might miss the bounce back.

Still Going

I'm very busy working at my job.  Just wanted to note that the market plunged again.  Confidence in the Western Economy is probably at the lowest level since the WWII .  I earlier predicted the bottom to be in the 10000 range on the DOW possibly 8500.  Now the 8500-9000 range is a legitimate bottom target. I just don't see how we won't test the previous lows for the Great Recession/ or Great Depression 21st century style.

Don't buy yet

For all of you that buy mutual funds/401K investors, long term investors don't buy the S&P 500 index fund or most other commonly used index funds.  The spike back up is still on the basic downward slope of the graph.  Absent Obama putting some competent people on his economic team I don't see any changes until Americans and the business community is comfortable with who is going to face him in 2012.  I see that as the next big indicator since the economy is going into a slowdown or likely back into recession..  The supposed health of multinational corporations is not enough to bolster the health of the US stock indexes. Ultimately Wall Street predicts the future direction.  Don't look for the prediction to change before Q1 or Q2 2012.  I don't like JP Morgan Chase but bringing in someone of Jamie Dimon's or other fortune 500 CEO.  I'm still looking for a bottom.  If one forms soon I'll change my sentiment.

Where is the bottom?

Last three sessions on Wall Street have seen a flash correction plunge.  I still believe there is time to get into cash.  The market has another 10-20% to go from here until it has reached a reasonable surface to rise from.  Rick Perry appears to be getting into the Presidential Race.  A seasoned governor of a large state that has bucked the trend of this recession should be real "Change Our Country, Our Economy, and Our World can believe in". Look for Perry to be strong in New Hampshire and win big in Iowa and South Carolina.  This will be the signal to buy. The market should be near the bottom by then. Maybe sooner if Perry looks very strong in the polls.    If your average market basis is still up over all there is still time to get out. 

Still Time to Get Out. Dow 8000, SP 750 are possible

Still plenty of time to get out. S&P 500 closed well below support levels today. With the economy slowing sharply. Likely into recession. Especially if you calculation real growth  minus inflation.  Financial pundits were holding out for good auto sales numbers. They came in disappointing. ISM, consumer confidence, home prices, and unemployment are all negative.   I really don't see much way for the economy not to go through another recession. Look for capitulation to happen sometime in Q4 or Q1 2012.  If Rick Perry or Mitt Romney emerge as the Republican front runner look for the market to take off(Post capitulation) as a leading indicator that the failed Obama administration is over. Staying in cash has felt good. I urge most retirement investors to do likewise for the next couple of quarters. Of course always keep your eyes on the street. Things may change.

Recession is Coming, Still All in cash

I have been in cash all summer. The rally didn't have much legs.  The economy is on wobbly legs. The new unemployment numbers dropped below 400K for the first time.  I just don't see that as sustainable with mass layoffs being announced.  I just don't see the incentive for the large companies that have been busy developing off shore resources to hire producers in the current tax and regulatory environment.  Short of an aggressive debt deal and a repeal of the Obamacare bill I don't see a run until next summer if Romney or a Rick Perry get the Republican nomination.  I believe that will start the end of Obama Rally.  The end of the anti-capitalist regime in Washington will be the signal to buy!  Once the recession sets in and another 10-20% dip in the market I will be back in no matter what. Obama will be a lame duck at that point.  See Jimmy Carter, George HW Bush. No way he can blame it on Dubya!

The Slide Continues

Warning: This is not financial advice. Just my ramblings. If you need financial advice go to an advisor

The slide continues.  Housing is bad.  Like a large number of Americans my house slides deeper and deeper under water.  If I had to move to find a job to feed my family I would have to give the house to the bank/FHA for foreclosure.  On the flip side this is a great opportunity to start acquiring low end rentals.

I still recommend getting out.  I think next spring we are going to see a rally as momentum builds towards a likely landslide in the Presidential election. I expect we are going to trade in a downward range until late spring next year. Look for the bottom to be somewhere between 8500 and 10000.  6500 if things get really bad. Its still not to late to sell your index funds!

All Out. Not letting the Rich Take My Retirement funds

**** Warning this blog does not constitute financial advise. This is strictly my musings and observations. I recommend always seeking independent and simple fee not commissioned based financial planning and investment advice ***
I'm starting this blog to try to impart some common financial wisdom. I've seen too many people loose small fortunes by ignoring their interests or playing let it ride like the stock market is a roulette wheel. I think Gen X and the Mellenials are well enough informed to avoid these mistakes. We share and absorb information from a vast array or sources never available before.

I've watched my 401K go up and down. By reading financial news and doing basic technical analysis it is usually pretty easy to pick a market top or a bottom.  I put my 401K in cash the week after memorial day. Wished I had done it before memorial day.  However this has been a long trip down. There is still time. I believe we are in the midst of another major stock market drop.  I really think we are going to have to see market capitulation..  I think we will see it when the Dow Jones industrial average hits 10000. Depending on the news that might be the time to buy. If not I think 8500 will be the place to buy in.   That could all change though if political wisdom puts a floor under the market.