Lame Duck.

As last week's rally fades and the plunge continues any thoughts I entertained of getting back in are gone.  I stick by my guns. Q1 or Q2 next year will be the time to buy.  The market will start pricing in who  the next President is going to be.   President Obama is a lame duck.  He has had the most incompetent advisors surround him.  Even some of the more reasonable ones like former Economic Advisor Christina Romer was forced to drink the socialist kool-aid.  Obama is a committed socialist. Not sure how anyone could not see that. I understand his socialist activism in college was ignored but a professional community organizer? Come on.  Then he was a mostly inconsequential state and federal legislator.  So I stand by the market will be sighing with relief when the end is in sight.   Until then there is still time to get out of the market.  The market still has another 10% or so to go before finding a bottom. It gets a little more risky here because you might miss the bounce back.

Still Going

I'm very busy working at my job.  Just wanted to note that the market plunged again.  Confidence in the Western Economy is probably at the lowest level since the WWII .  I earlier predicted the bottom to be in the 10000 range on the DOW possibly 8500.  Now the 8500-9000 range is a legitimate bottom target. I just don't see how we won't test the previous lows for the Great Recession/ or Great Depression 21st century style.

Don't buy yet

For all of you that buy mutual funds/401K investors, long term investors don't buy the S&P 500 index fund or most other commonly used index funds.  The spike back up is still on the basic downward slope of the graph.  Absent Obama putting some competent people on his economic team I don't see any changes until Americans and the business community is comfortable with who is going to face him in 2012.  I see that as the next big indicator since the economy is going into a slowdown or likely back into recession..  The supposed health of multinational corporations is not enough to bolster the health of the US stock indexes. Ultimately Wall Street predicts the future direction.  Don't look for the prediction to change before Q1 or Q2 2012.  I don't like JP Morgan Chase but bringing in someone of Jamie Dimon's or other fortune 500 CEO.  I'm still looking for a bottom.  If one forms soon I'll change my sentiment.

Where is the bottom?

Last three sessions on Wall Street have seen a flash correction plunge.  I still believe there is time to get into cash.  The market has another 10-20% to go from here until it has reached a reasonable surface to rise from.  Rick Perry appears to be getting into the Presidential Race.  A seasoned governor of a large state that has bucked the trend of this recession should be real "Change Our Country, Our Economy, and Our World can believe in". Look for Perry to be strong in New Hampshire and win big in Iowa and South Carolina.  This will be the signal to buy. The market should be near the bottom by then. Maybe sooner if Perry looks very strong in the polls.    If your average market basis is still up over all there is still time to get out. 

Still Time to Get Out. Dow 8000, SP 750 are possible

Still plenty of time to get out. S&P 500 closed well below support levels today. With the economy slowing sharply. Likely into recession. Especially if you calculation real growth  minus inflation.  Financial pundits were holding out for good auto sales numbers. They came in disappointing. ISM, consumer confidence, home prices, and unemployment are all negative.   I really don't see much way for the economy not to go through another recession. Look for capitulation to happen sometime in Q4 or Q1 2012.  If Rick Perry or Mitt Romney emerge as the Republican front runner look for the market to take off(Post capitulation) as a leading indicator that the failed Obama administration is over. Staying in cash has felt good. I urge most retirement investors to do likewise for the next couple of quarters. Of course always keep your eyes on the street. Things may change.