Still Bearish

Q3 ended on an ugly note for a terrible quarter. I looked at the Dow up 80 in the early morning and I seriously thought about tweeting the end of day will be down 200.  To much hope is being placed on Europe.  Right now there is no growth engine for the US economy.  The only hope is moving to the Fair Tax.  The best thing for the economy was Herman Cain becoming a force in the Presidential race. Unlike Huckabee who embraced the Fair Tax in 2008 the GOP has a real chance in 2012.  The 9-9-9 plan would make manufacturing in the US plausible again. Remove the specter of Obama care and some of the burdensome regulations and you would see this countries productivity be competitive with the world. 

I have been faithfully predicting the market will start to go up by the end of Q1.  It looks like the GOP ticket will in March with all the big primaries being front loaded.  A business friendly President and a possible first governing Republican majority in many generations will be very bullish for the market. I  will adjust my bottom. I think it will be the Mid to upper 9000's on the Dow and the mid 950's on the S&P 500.

Its October. Still time to sell. This is historically a bad month for stocks

Still Another Leg Down To Go

I'm still holding in cash.  Market futures are down again.  I see 52 week low being touched or broken through on the S&P 500.  Looking for the S&P and the Dow to go down another 15-20% before recovering next year.  Politics: I liked what I heard from Herman Cain and Gary Johnson.  Whoever the nominee is I hope they listen to those guys.  That will be very good for our country and the Markets.  Hold on and stay in cash!

Downward Trend Resumes

The market had been in a very volatile but slow upward trend.  The 1-2-3 punch of an ineffective Administration in Washington D.C., European Debt on the brink and the Fed pointing out the obvious that it is going to be a long slog.  I'm still all in short term cash in my 401k.  When we have a pro-business GOP nominee who will counteract the taxes, regulations, pro-union, anti-business mentality of the Obama adminisration, I look for companies and investors to start reinvesting their cash back into the business and market. Look for this Late Q1 to Q2 of 2012

Not Much Has Changed

Time to stay on the sidelines.  There might still be time to get out of US equities though it is a slightly larger gamble now.  Obama fails to lead or create an enviornment friendly for job growth.  Still looking at end of Q1 as the time to figure out how to get back in.  I'm still 100% in cash in my 401k.

Lame Duck.

As last week's rally fades and the plunge continues any thoughts I entertained of getting back in are gone.  I stick by my guns. Q1 or Q2 next year will be the time to buy.  The market will start pricing in who  the next President is going to be.   President Obama is a lame duck.  He has had the most incompetent advisors surround him.  Even some of the more reasonable ones like former Economic Advisor Christina Romer was forced to drink the socialist kool-aid.  Obama is a committed socialist. Not sure how anyone could not see that. I understand his socialist activism in college was ignored but a professional community organizer? Come on.  Then he was a mostly inconsequential state and federal legislator.  So I stand by the market will be sighing with relief when the end is in sight.   Until then there is still time to get out of the market.  The market still has another 10% or so to go before finding a bottom. It gets a little more risky here because you might miss the bounce back.

Still Going

I'm very busy working at my job.  Just wanted to note that the market plunged again.  Confidence in the Western Economy is probably at the lowest level since the WWII .  I earlier predicted the bottom to be in the 10000 range on the DOW possibly 8500.  Now the 8500-9000 range is a legitimate bottom target. I just don't see how we won't test the previous lows for the Great Recession/ or Great Depression 21st century style.

Don't buy yet

For all of you that buy mutual funds/401K investors, long term investors don't buy the S&P 500 index fund or most other commonly used index funds.  The spike back up is still on the basic downward slope of the graph.  Absent Obama putting some competent people on his economic team I don't see any changes until Americans and the business community is comfortable with who is going to face him in 2012.  I see that as the next big indicator since the economy is going into a slowdown or likely back into recession..  The supposed health of multinational corporations is not enough to bolster the health of the US stock indexes. Ultimately Wall Street predicts the future direction.  Don't look for the prediction to change before Q1 or Q2 2012.  I don't like JP Morgan Chase but bringing in someone of Jamie Dimon's or other fortune 500 CEO.  I'm still looking for a bottom.  If one forms soon I'll change my sentiment.