Recession is Coming, Still All in cash

I have been in cash all summer. The rally didn't have much legs.  The economy is on wobbly legs. The new unemployment numbers dropped below 400K for the first time.  I just don't see that as sustainable with mass layoffs being announced.  I just don't see the incentive for the large companies that have been busy developing off shore resources to hire producers in the current tax and regulatory environment.  Short of an aggressive debt deal and a repeal of the Obamacare bill I don't see a run until next summer if Romney or a Rick Perry get the Republican nomination.  I believe that will start the end of Obama Rally.  The end of the anti-capitalist regime in Washington will be the signal to buy!  Once the recession sets in and another 10-20% dip in the market I will be back in no matter what. Obama will be a lame duck at that point.  See Jimmy Carter, George HW Bush. No way he can blame it on Dubya!

The Slide Continues

Warning: This is not financial advice. Just my ramblings. If you need financial advice go to an advisor

The slide continues.  Housing is bad.  Like a large number of Americans my house slides deeper and deeper under water.  If I had to move to find a job to feed my family I would have to give the house to the bank/FHA for foreclosure.  On the flip side this is a great opportunity to start acquiring low end rentals.

I still recommend getting out.  I think next spring we are going to see a rally as momentum builds towards a likely landslide in the Presidential election. I expect we are going to trade in a downward range until late spring next year. Look for the bottom to be somewhere between 8500 and 10000.  6500 if things get really bad. Its still not to late to sell your index funds!

All Out. Not letting the Rich Take My Retirement funds

**** Warning this blog does not constitute financial advise. This is strictly my musings and observations. I recommend always seeking independent and simple fee not commissioned based financial planning and investment advice ***
I'm starting this blog to try to impart some common financial wisdom. I've seen too many people loose small fortunes by ignoring their interests or playing let it ride like the stock market is a roulette wheel. I think Gen X and the Mellenials are well enough informed to avoid these mistakes. We share and absorb information from a vast array or sources never available before.

I've watched my 401K go up and down. By reading financial news and doing basic technical analysis it is usually pretty easy to pick a market top or a bottom.  I put my 401K in cash the week after memorial day. Wished I had done it before memorial day.  However this has been a long trip down. There is still time. I believe we are in the midst of another major stock market drop.  I really think we are going to have to see market capitulation..  I think we will see it when the Dow Jones industrial average hits 10000. Depending on the news that might be the time to buy. If not I think 8500 will be the place to buy in.   That could all change though if political wisdom puts a floor under the market.