Missed the little rally in the bear market

Well I missed the bear rally.  No worries because day trading and 401K are largely in compatible.  The Euro appears to be doomed. Things are looking up though. I see a hard bottom around the end of March next year when a Cain Gingrich ticket seems like a winner.  An incoming administration that is deep in policy, Gingrich, and rich on leadership, Cain is what this country, economy and world need. That would inspire the economy the way the eloquent reader of the teleprompter(Obama) and the blowhard(Biden) fail to give. Again I'm out until a major corner.  The reality of the situation in Europe with the promise of a new dawn here should finally create the buying opportunity

What does hope have to do with investing?

Nothing.  Its called gambling.  Hope in Europe is misplaced. So is hope in Obama.  Right now keeping money in the market is like playing let it ride at the Casino. The house is going to win.  The house is the hedge funds, institutional investors, corporate insiders and the government.

The encouraging thing is the market seems to be closing on a technical bottom with the market over the S&P above the 50 day and not far below the 200 day MA. 


I still see nothing fundamentally bullish to move this market forward. It is still less risky to invest money in foreign capital and labor than domestic.  Only a change in administration plus a change in tax and regulatory policy will start to make the domestic labor and consumption market look competitive again against the riskier emerging markets.  Still looking at the end of Q1 before the market shows some leadership to the upside.

What Dollar cost averaging does

In a normal market Dollar cost averaging helps you catch the normal ebbs and flows of the market.  Timing a market on a general trend is a risky business. However we are not in a normal market.  We are in a very volatile bear market. Likely with another 20% downward trend. So likely if you are a young gen Xer or a millenial new to 401k investing your basis for average is probably well above current market levels. Its time to sell.  There will be a nice bottom that you will be able to catch before the recovery.  The market needs a sign that liberalism is dead. The Great Depression of the 20th century instiutionalized liberalism.  The Great Depression of the 21st century will help reform and change it.  Herman Cain or Mitt Romney after receiving the nomination will inject a huge level of confidence among all businesses interested in making a profit and hiring. This is what is needed to save this economy. Not a pesky jobs program. Once that is in place investors will start to return to the market and so should you.

Q4 rough start

Good morning.  Looks like it has been an ugly start to Q4.  More and more mainstream analysts are saying we are going back into recession.  I believe we  have probably been in recession all year and likely won't start climbing out until confidence rebounds in 2012 as the Presidential race unfolds.  Look for the markets to go down another 15% or more. Unemployment is probably going to tick up nation wide as it has here in Georgia.  Stay out of stocks. Horde cash if you can. 

Still Bearish

Q3 ended on an ugly note for a terrible quarter. I looked at the Dow up 80 in the early morning and I seriously thought about tweeting the end of day will be down 200.  To much hope is being placed on Europe.  Right now there is no growth engine for the US economy.  The only hope is moving to the Fair Tax.  The best thing for the economy was Herman Cain becoming a force in the Presidential race. Unlike Huckabee who embraced the Fair Tax in 2008 the GOP has a real chance in 2012.  The 9-9-9 plan would make manufacturing in the US plausible again. Remove the specter of Obama care and some of the burdensome regulations and you would see this countries productivity be competitive with the world. 

I have been faithfully predicting the market will start to go up by the end of Q1.  It looks like the GOP ticket will in March with all the big primaries being front loaded.  A business friendly President and a possible first governing Republican majority in many generations will be very bullish for the market. I  will adjust my bottom. I think it will be the Mid to upper 9000's on the Dow and the mid 950's on the S&P 500.

Its October. Still time to sell. This is historically a bad month for stocks

Still Another Leg Down To Go

I'm still holding in cash.  Market futures are down again.  I see 52 week low being touched or broken through on the S&P 500.  Looking for the S&P and the Dow to go down another 15-20% before recovering next year.  Politics: I liked what I heard from Herman Cain and Gary Johnson.  Whoever the nominee is I hope they listen to those guys.  That will be very good for our country and the Markets.  Hold on and stay in cash!

Downward Trend Resumes

The market had been in a very volatile but slow upward trend.  The 1-2-3 punch of an ineffective Administration in Washington D.C., European Debt on the brink and the Fed pointing out the obvious that it is going to be a long slog.  I'm still all in short term cash in my 401k.  When we have a pro-business GOP nominee who will counteract the taxes, regulations, pro-union, anti-business mentality of the Obama adminisration, I look for companies and investors to start reinvesting their cash back into the business and market. Look for this Late Q1 to Q2 of 2012